By Tendai Chisiri
HARARE – The Zimbabwe Meteorological Services Department (MSD) has warned of a high probability that an El Niño event will develop during the 2026/27 rainy season, based on the latest global climate models.
In a press statement issued on 29 April 2026, the MSD said global forecasting centres estimate there is an 88% to 94% chance of El Niño conditions emerging. Historically, El Niño in Zimbabwe carries a 65% chance of bringing below-normal rainfall, which could result in drier-than-average conditions.
However, the department cautioned that forecasts at this early stage face a “spring predictability barrier,” meaning atmospheric and oceanic conditions could still change significantly before the season begins.
“Because of this inherent uncertainty, the MSD has not yet issued its official seasonal forecast and warns the public and stakeholders against making final agricultural or financial decisions based solely on these preliminary models,” the statement read.
The department said a more reliable national outlook, known as the National Climate Outlook Forum (NACOF), will be released in August 2026 following the Southern African Development Community Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF). The report will use updated data to guide seasonal planning.
In the meantime, the MSD urged the public and farming community to remain calm and avoid panic-driven decisions. It recommended continuing with standard preparations for the upcoming season while adopting climate-resilient practices such as water conservation and planting drought-tolerant seed varieties.
Stakeholders were advised to rely only on official MSD channels for updates as the weather outlook becomes clearer in the coming months.
El Niño typically brings warmer, drier conditions to southern Africa and has historically impacted agricultural output and water availability in Zimbabwe.
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